Our Take: Joe Calzaghe v. Roy Jones

We're taking the underdog - Roy Jones at +275.

Calzaghe hit the canvas in his last fight, and had to get up to win a split decision that many at ringside thought he lost.

Jones - who has had chin problems of his own - has not hit the canvas since getting knocked out by Glen Johnson in 2004.

More importantly, Calzaghe doesn't have one punch knockout power. Roy Jones does. Jones flashed it in knocking down Felix "Tito" Trinidad twice in his last fight. Both fighters are almost certain to land as both have been vulnerable to getting hit in recent fights. We simply believe that Jones will have more behind the punches.

Calzaghe has benefitted from fighting fighters who are not as mobile as Jones. Jones' mobility will pose a problem for him, as will Jones' ability to fight while backing up. Some of Jones' best punches are thrown when Jones is backpedaling and countering. Calzaghe - an offensive fighter - provides many opportunities for a counterpuncher.

So - even though Jones is a big underdog in the fight - we're picking him to win. We're expecting him to do so by decision.