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Saturday, August 30, 2008

Our Take: Joe Calzaghe v. Roy Jones

We're taking the underdog - Roy Jones at +275.

Calzaghe hit the canvas in his last fight, and had to get up to win a split decision that many at ringside thought he lost.

Jones - who has had chin problems of his own - has not hit the canvas since getting knocked out by Glen Johnson in 2004.

More importantly, Calzaghe doesn't have one punch knockout power. Roy Jones does. Jones flashed it in knocking down Felix "Tito" Trinidad twice in his last fight. Both fighters are almost certain to land as both have been vulnerable to getting hit in recent fights. We simply believe that Jones will have more behind the punches.

Calzaghe has benefitted from fighting fighters who are not as mobile as Jones. Jones' mobility will pose a problem for him, as will Jones' ability to fight while backing up. Some of Jones' best punches are thrown when Jones is backpedaling and countering. Calzaghe - an offensive fighter - provides many opportunities for a counterpuncher.

So - even though Jones is a big underdog in the fight - we're picking him to win. We're expecting him to do so by decision.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Oscar De La Hoya v. Manny Pacquiao

Mismatch.

Oscar is 5-10 1/2, has fought at middleweight and packs a big punch. He has dropped the following noteworthy fighters:

- Ike Quartey
- Fernando Vargas
- Ricardo Mayorga

He further has much faster handspeed than David Diaz, Manny's last opponent. Further, he has only been stopped once -- at 160 by Bernard Hopkins.

Manny is trying to jump two weight classes to meet Oscar at 147 to 150. He is only 5-6 1/2. He'll have to come inside to be effective. This is a recipe for disaster against a big hitter like Oscar.

We like Oscar, who is justifiably a big favorite. A good big man beats a good little man. Manny is biting off more than he can chew.

Feel free to post your comments below.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Betting Play: Juan Diaz v. Michael Katsidis

This fight is too close to call. But the over under of 10.5 is too high. Neither fighter has much defense. In Katsidis's last fight, there were 4 knockdowns. Katsidis has a 83.3% knockout rate -- exceptional.

We believe the play here is the under at +105. We don't see the fight going 10.5 rounds, and would not be surprised if it ends early. Very early.

Feel free to leave your thoughts for other readers below.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Prediction: Valuev v. Ruiz

We're taking Valuev to once again beat John Ruiz. Since their last fight, Valuev has progressed, adding skills to his repertoire with quality wins over Serguei Lyakhovich, Monte Barret, Jean Bergeron.

It is true that he lost to Ruslan Chageav. But Ruslan is a better fighter than Ruiz. In fact, Chageav beat Ruiz in 2006.

With the fight being in Europe, we're expecting Valuev to win by decision. A win would set up a megafight with Vladimir Klitschko. We expect a motivated Valuev to repeat his prior win.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Our Prediction: Mora v. Forrest

We understand that Oscar de la Hoya has contacted Sergio Mora to fight him should he beat Vernon Forrest.

We don't expect that to happen. We're taking Forrest to avenge his loss to Mora, who lacks knockout power (5 KOs).

Forrest did not appear to have trained last time, and may well cut off the ring and go for the knockout this time around against the light hitting Mora. Mora is one of our favorite fighters, but he simply does not have the power to keep a fit Forrest off of him. Forrest has already beaten boxer punchers such as Shane Mosley and should be able to work off a jab to nullify Mora's speed before working his body to take away his legs.

We like Forrest in a spirited contest.

Saturday, August 16, 2008

Our Prediction: Pavlik v. Hopkins

We're picking Hopkins over unbeaten Kelly Pavlik. Hopkins is the bigger fighter who has fought by far the better competition. He beat a much better Antonio Tarver, who is a 175 pounder with a bigger punch and more boxing skills than the 160 pount Pavlik. Pavlik was down against Taylor in their first fight, and might be overhyped. Hopkins just dropped Joe Calzaghe (a much better fighter than Pavlik), but lost the split decision. At +275, we believe Hopkins is a compelling bargain in this matchup. We're picking him to win the fight.

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