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---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: By The Numbers NFL <support@teamrankings.com>
Date: Tue, Aug 26, 2025, 3:53 PM
Subject: NFC Power Rankings: Which playoff team gets cut?
To: <esquire777@gmail.com>


By The Numbers: NFL Newsletter
 
NFC Predictions 2025
Eagles and 49ers lead the race, Vikings face a tough road to a playoff return.
The NFC Landscape
The NFC is led by Philadelphia (10.7 projected wins) and San Francisco (10.1), both strong division favorites with real top seed paths.
San Francisco also benefits from the easiest projected schedule in the conference, which supports their jump from last season.
Behind the top two sits a deep second tier with five teams clustered between 9.0 and 9.9 wins: Detroit, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Washington, and the LA Rams.
At the other end, the Giants (5.5) and Saints (5.4) are clearly rebuilding, each with playoff odds below 10 percent.
Division Outlooks
NFC East
Philadelphia remains the class of the division, even if they encounter a small step back from last year. Washington (9.3 wins) is the primary challenger with Jayden Daniels looking to build on an NFC Championship appearance in his rookie season. Dallas (7.5) has a wide range of outcomes that settles around 7 to 8 wins, while the Giants (5.5) focus on long term development with a tough schedule.
NFC North
Detroit (9.9) and Green Bay (9.7) are near equals at the top. Minnesota (8.7) shows the largest projected drop in the NFC, driven by one of the toughest schedules in the conference, plus a rugged division context and slight regression. Chicago (8.0) improves and sits on the playoff fringe.
NFC South
Tampa Bay (9.5) is favored with 47 percent division odds, but Atlanta (8.5) is live at 33 percent and Carolina (7.0) is a viable dark horse at 15 percent. New Orleans (5.4) sits at the bottom of the conference in terms of overall projected wins.
NFC West
San Francisco (10.1) projects as the favorite and benefits from the softest schedule in the NFC. The Rams (9.3) and Cardinals (8.5) both push for wild card spots, and even Seattle (8.2) is competitive in what looks like a deep division.
Regression and Improvement
Biggest expected increases: San Francisco +4.1 wins, Chicago +3.0, NY Giants +2.5
Biggest expected declines: Minnesota -5.3 wins, Detroit -5.1, Philadelphia -3.3
San Francisco's rise is supported by schedule relief and a favorable path. Minnesota's slide is a combination of regression risk, a difficult schedule, and a challenging division.
Projected NFC Playoff Picture
Seed Team Avg. Wins Playoff Odds
1Philadelphia10.774%
2San Francisco10.164%
3Detroit9.963%
4Tampa Bay9.560%
5Green Bay9.760%
6Washington9.354%
7LA Rams9.353%
Just missed: Minnesota 45%, Atlanta 47%, Arizona 40%, Seattle 36%.
What Could Swing the NFC Bracket
Most of last year's field should return, and the final spot is splitting hairs. If the bracket flips, it likely comes from the NFC South or the NFC West.
Atlanta is the most plausible climber from the South. In the West, both Arizona and Seattle have credible paths if they bank division wins (or San Francisco or the LA Rams are not as good as expected) in what looks like a balanced four-team race.
Quarterback transitions are the wild cards: Minnesota is resetting at quarterback in a tough division, Chicago seeks a Year Two leap from Caleb Williams, Michael Penix Jr. gets the nod in Atlanta, and Dallas needs a healthy Dak Prescott with an offense first script while the defense stabilizes.
Final Word
The NFC projects to return six of last year's seven playoff teams, with San Francisco replacing Minnesota. The South is the most open division, and the West could deliver multiple playoff teams.

Philadelphia and San Francisco set the pace at the top, while the final wild card slots should be tightly contested among Washington, Minnesota, Arizona, and Atlanta.

 
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Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
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